The Enrollment Cliff Is Real

The enrollment cliff is real, and it will be here before you know it.

This looming decline in enrollment for higher education institutions has already begun—but there is still more bad news coming with a predicted 24% decrease in college-age students by 2037. 

If small and medium-sized higher ed institutions want to survive this drastic drop off in traditional-aged college students, marketing teams will need to prove their brands’ value.

This is one of the big reasons why I wrote my book, Chasing Mission Fit.

Having been in higher ed for over thirty-five years, I am deeply committed to seeing colleges and universities succeed, despite the challenges to come. 

If we take the time to identify the key differentiators of our brand—our mission distinctives—then we can craft messaging that properly and compellingly communicates our mission to prospective students.

If done properly, and in an audience-centric way, then prospective students who share our missional values will self-identify with our marketing and engage with the enrollment team.

If the information in this post is helpful to you, I recommend you get the book, because there are a whole lot more action-packed insights waiting inside for you there.

In this episode of The Higher Ed Marketer podcast, we’re joined by Chris Rapozo, Marketing Specialist at Hannon Hill, to review some of the most important concepts I cover in my book Chasing Mission Fit. 

Chris helps unpack some of the very first insights in the book, which focuses on the enrollment cliff and what steps colleges and universities should take to ensure their survival.

The Reality of the Enrollment Cliff

The term “enrollment cliff” refers to the significant drop in traditional-age college students expected to hit after 2025, peaking at 4.9 million in 2025 before plummeting. 

This demographic shift poses a financial threat, especially to small and medium-sized institutions that rely heavily on traditional-age students for tuition revenue. 

Of course, such a drastic financial threat leads to an existential crisis. We’re already seeing numerous institutions folding or merging as they react to the pressures.

Chris emphasizes the need for schools to adjust their marketing strategies to attract traditionally underserved demographics.

“There will be about a drop of 350,000 to 400,000 fewer traditional-age students, which means a significant financial impact for institutions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest,” Chris explains.

Identifying Mission-Fit Students

To combat the enrollment cliff, it’s crucial for institutions to identify and attract mission-fit students—those who align with the school’s mission and values. 

These students are more likely to thrive and become engaged alumni. 

Chris suggests starting with alumni who exemplify the institution’s spirit and culture. 

In order for us to help identify who our mission fit student is, we can go back to previous successful students—our alumni—and figure out their personas. 

Then from those personas, [we can] create the new personas that we are going to best connect with. 

Figure out who are the people that are still involved, that come back frequently to your institutions, the people that trust you enough to send their kids back to the school, those legacy students. 

There is a reason why they’re sending their kids to your school. That’s the way to figure out which of those students align with your mission, with your vision, and with your values.

By understanding their values and aspirations, schools can create personas that reflect their most successful students.

Effective Marketing Strategies

With mission-fit students identified, the next step is to create effective marketing strategies to connect with them. 

This involves understanding where these students spend their time and meeting them there—both digitally and physically.

Digital Watering Holes

Platforms like social media, Reddit, SnapChat, and Discord servers are where Gen Z students congregate. 

Reddit is another digital platform where a lot of people hang out. There’s about 52 million users and the majority of those users are between 18 and 29 years old. 

You can create your own watering holes through subreddits like the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign did. 

[In this way,] you [can] create your own little pocket where people can flock to and then discuss things, and you have them right there!

Creating a presence in these spaces allows schools to share their mission and values organically.

Physical Watering Holes

High schools, community centers, churches, and other community hubs are places where potential students can be found. 

[For some of] the physical ordering holes, you [can] go to barber shops, community centers, [or] faith based institutions [like] churches. Then, you market your institution there. 

[There’s a great example Bart gives in the book about] bringing them a box of donuts and just saying, “Hey, we’d love to bless you. Leave your information!” If they want to further collaborate, they can call you. 

Go to high schools. Go to Boys and Girls Clubs, the YMCA, [anywhere] the prospective students hang out and market to them there. 

Engaging with these communities directly can build stronger, more authentic connections.

Chris emphasized, “Find where prospective students hang out and market to them there, instead of blindly chasing them down.”

Embracing Non-Traditional Students

With the decline in traditional-age students, non-traditional students—such as adult learners, part-time students, and military-connected individuals—may become the new norm. 

Flexibility in programming and delivery is key to attracting and retaining these students.

I was a non-traditional adult learner myself, graduated at the age of 39 from the University of Florida online. 

[Because of this] I have a heart for non-traditional students, for the traditionally underserved.

Some of them are even dual enroll students as Bart mentioned in his book. 

“Non-traditional students may become the new traditional students in the future,” Chris notes. “Flexibility is everything.”

Marketing to these groups involves highlighting success stories, providing flexible learning options, and making the value of completing their education clear.

The Enrollment Cliff Can Be Overcome

The enrollment cliff is a significant challenge, but by focusing on mission-fit students, leveraging effective marketing strategies, and embracing non-traditional learners, institutions can navigate these changes successfully. 

As both Chris and I emphasize, the key is to start preparing now to ensure your institution’s future success.

Listen to our interview with Chris Rapozo to get even more insights into:

• Why mission-fit strategies will be critical in enrollment marketing
• Redefining future traditional student demographics
• The potential impact of influencers on higher ed marketing

Learn How to Enroll More Mission-Fit Students, Even During the Enrollment Cliff!

Purchase your copy of Chasing Mission Fit here today!

Also, if you want to dive even deeper into your understanding of how your school can identify, cultivate, and enroll even more mission-fit students, check out our new Chasing Mission Fit Study Guide!

This is a training investment that you won’t regret.

---

Want to Improve Your Digital Marketing Results?

Then you’ve got to know how to write for the web. That’s why we want to send you our popular ebook: Writing for the Web: 7 Secrets to Content Marketing Success for Education Marketers!

With this helpful resource, you’ll learn how to:

• Grab your reader’s attention immediately
• Pull your reader’s attention deeper into your content
• Write so that Google (and other search engines) find you easily
• Increase your website’s conversion rates

In short, you’ll be able to write the copy that makes your digital marketing strategy work for you. Download your copy today!

Featured image by Ivan Kmit via Adobe Stock